Turkmenistan’s Energy Sector Enters a “New Stage” — But When Will Citizens?

Turkmenistan’s Energy Sector Enters a “New Stage” — But When Will Citizens? International consulting firm GaffneyCline says Turkmenistan’s energy sector is entering a new stage of development, citing further development of the giant Galkynysh gas field, projects in the Caspian Sea, infrastructure modernization, and the TAPI gas pipeline, with a planned capacity of up to 33 billion cubic meters of gas per year. In the official picture, everything looks impressive: new wells, billions of cubic meters of gas, international markets, and major projects. Yet this optimistic narrative comes against the backdrop of reports by independent observers of serious socio-economic problems in the country: labor migration and a large-scale population outflow, unemployment and a shortage of jobs, low real incomes, the use of forced labor, and a significant gap between the official and unofficial exchange rates. It creates a rather peculiar Turkmen economic miracle: there is plenty of gas, the projects keep getting bigger, yet citizens are still asking where the benefits of this wealth are in their everyday lives. Another key issue is transparency: How much revenue does the state receive from natural gas exports, and where does that money go? For citizens, this is directly connected to economic and social rights — decent wages, pensions and social benefits, healthcare, education, and social protection. So there is a simple question: if Turkmenistan’s energy sector is truly entering a “new stage of development,” when will that new stage become visible not only in gas projects and at international forums, but also in the wallets and everyday lives of Turkmenistan’s citizens?